THE FATE, or at least the destination, of the Rugby World Cup of 2011 will be announced in Dublin on November 17th. Japan and South Africa present compelling cases for being awarded the tournament.

Japan will point towards efficient transport systems, ample hotel accommodation for the expected 80,000 visiting supporters and superb stadiums, which played such a big role in making the 2002 football the dazzling success that it was.

They will also point out, without actually pointing towards their rivals South Africa, that Japan is one of the safest countries in the world. Japan's ace-in-the-hole though, is the IRBs stated intent to 'globalise' rugby.

Rugby is a minority sport in Japan and, much like England's win in 2003, a world class tournament in their country could precipitate an explosion of interest in the game among a largely rugby indifferent public.

South Africa's bid, whilst different, is almost as strong. They too will have facilities to match anything else in the world. As the venue for the 2010 football world cup the infrastructure in the country will certainly be in place. And as they have shown previously by hosting the cricket world cup, they are capable of running big events.

So what of New Zealand? Eden Park in Auckland can only hold 45,000, though this will be boosted to 60,000 should they be awarded the world cup. The city of Auckland has only 7,000 hotel beds and New Zealand itself is a long way away, and in a very different time zone, from rugby's biggest potential television audience; Europe.

There is a suspicion, in New Zealand, that the world cup will go to whichever country can deliver the biggest payday to the IRB, and in this they are a fairly comfortable third amongst the bidders. They are also acutely aware that it is now or never for New Zealand, after 2011 the rugby world cup will be too big for them. If they don't get it now they never will.

From a global television audience of some 500,000 for the first world cup in 1987 (jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand), world cup 2003 delivered a staggering 3.7 billion viewers. Rugby world cup is now the third biggest sporting event in the world; only the Olympics and the football world cup attract a bigger viewing public.

Sentiment will not deliver the tournament for New Zealand: cash at the bank, adequate infrastructure and that crucial television audience will. The bids are in now, and time will tell if New Zealand have made theirs attractive enough. But for the rugby purist, New Zealand is the dream ticket.

'Rugby means more to these people than to anyone else on earth'. So said Sir Clive Woodward when he took the Lions there. The Lions tour also proved to a watching world that New Zealand can host major events successfully, and that as a nation they are the most passionate rugby supporters on the planet.

Rugby Football may have its roots in the English public school system, but its soul lies in New Zealand. For this country, which has given so much to the game, to never host the Rugby World Cup in its own right would be a travesty, and a tragedy.

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E-Mail: steve@s-p-f.net

Note: New Zealand were awarded the 2011 world cup in January 2006; see you there.